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THE V A R I A B L E | June 1998

Public Wants Transit, But Not at Any Price

While the public is highly supportive of transit as key to solving the metro area transportation problem, it is pragmatic and frugal in its view of government in general and transit spending in particular.

Unfortunately, the recent Guide the Ride ballot initiative was based on a philosophy of transit liberalism. The touchstone of this viewpoint is that the metro area must have a comprehensive rail-based transit system. This inevitably leads to a massive program dependent on new tax dollars.

Before advocates of this philosophy start another tax election for largely the same goals, there should be a careful examination of the public's view on transit spending.

A Ciruli Associates poll conducted for RTD in March 1998 shows two-thirds of Denver metro voters say they want to invest in more transit and light rail to solve the area's congestion problems, and 78 percent support a light rail line down the southeast corridor from downtown to the Tech Center. Yet they also made clear that last November's transit proposal was too much all at once (it was defeated 42% to 58%).

Why? The answer lies largely in a misalignment between transit advocates who enthusiastically proposed last fall's $6 billion, 66 percent tax increase and the majority of voters who are conservative to moderate regarding transit spending and planning. (See story below.)

The survey emphasizes voter pragmatism related to transit investment:

Given a choice in transit scenarios for the Denver area, a plurality (40%) of residents would use current revenue to improve bus service and build some light rail. Only if congestion requires additional investment will the public support a tax increase, and even then it must be more economical than last November's proposal. Remaining residents were divided: about one-quarter are ready to support another Guide the Ride tax proposal and 31 percent are opposed to any tax increase for transit spending. Voters are pro transit, but tax resistant.

This polling data shows that of all options the public is most ready to make transit progress, including light rail and more lanes in the southeast corridor, running from downtown Denver to the Tech Center.

The public is not libertarian regarding government involvement and tax investment in transportation. But it resists proposals that appear to offer meager gains, waste substantial revenue or benefit narrow interests.

The future of transportation planning in the Denver metro area will depend on a new alliance of business, local government and transportation agencies that are guided by a new philosophy of transit pragmatism.

Voters Say "Guide the Ride" Too Much, Too Costly

When voters handily rejected RTD's "Guide the Ride" proposal last November, they ended supporters' immediate plans for large-scale light rail in the Denver metro area. The loss was disappointing for supporters who believe light rail is the answer to congestion woes. Ironically, in many ways it was Guide the Ride's vast scope that helped doom it.

DIA on Wheels
Unfortunately for RTD, Denver International Airport continues to frame many debates over large public expenditures. An argument about Guide the Ride's cost, which ranged from $6 billion to $16 billion, led to comparisons with DIA where cost overruns escalated a promised $3 billion project into more than $5 billion.

Divided Board and Two Campaigns
Guide the Ride suffered from deep and long-standing Board disagreements over the proposal, which ultimately led to a deadly two-campaign strategy. In the first, boosters sought to separate from the Board by focusing on Guide the Ride's merits. In the second, supportive Board members initiated their own campaign. Opponents made the most of Board divisions by dominating news coverage and gaining control of the message.

RTD: Rails to Denver
Guide the Ride exacerbated the rivalry between Denver and its suburbs by emphasizing a hub and spoke system and locating the center in a new mega-facility at Union Station downtown. The plan was easy to criticize for not providing access to all suburbs or for suburb-to-suburb commutes.

Light Rail Emphasis
Despite the public's fascination with light rail, it rapidly gained critics who focused on its cost/benefit ratios and raised questions about its investment value. Perhaps more importantly, areas that were not slated for rail in the Guide the Ride plan believed they were not receiving their fair share and rebelled against it. Adams and Boulder counties considered the plan a tax transfer for the benefit of Denver and the southern suburbs

Voters Say Invest the Surplus

Although Colorado voters rejected an increased gas tax for road repairs, they strongly supported the Colorado Transportation Network call to invest the state surplus in highway improvements. The State Legislature responded with a $1.4 billion addition and placed on the ballot a state surplus override vote to add another billion to roads and school construction. If the vote was held today, metro area voters would favor an investment in transportation over a refund by 59 percent to 36 percent.

RTD Tax Joins Crowded Field of Vanquished Taxes

Colorado voters have defeated four major tax proposals since 1992. Voter sentiment is increasingly against new taxes. For a detailed report of the hostile tax environment and the "culture of opposition" printed in the The Denver Post on 5/31/98 [click here].

Colorado Major Tax Elections, 1992 - 1997
Year	Tax	Support	Area
1992	Sales Tax K-12 Schools	46%	Statewide
1993	Tourist Tax Extension	45%	Statewide
1997	Fuel Tax 5 cents	36%	Statewide
1997	RTD 0.4 cent	42%	Metro
	Ciruli Associates 1998

Ballot Initiatives Here's the latest poll results on a handful of potential November ballot issues:
Topic	Direction
Ban on union dues for politics without permission	68% up	Ahead in Colorado, lost in California
Limit bilingual education	67% up	People want change, swept California
K-12 vouchers	51%	Getting more popular, Union will have to fight to defeat.
Ban late-term abortions	45% down	Would lose in metro area
Ciruli Associates, Metro voters, 1998

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