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Presidential Election

If the 2000 election were held today and the candidates were the Democrat Al Gore, the Republican George W. Bush, the Freedom Party candidate Pat Buchanan, and the Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, whom would you vote for Al Gore, George Bush, Pat Buchanan, or Ralph Nader?

. Sept 29 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28
Bush 44% 44% 45% 47% 47% 50%
Gore 35% 40% 38% 37% 36% 35%
Nadar 6% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4%
Buchanan 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Won't vote (vol) .4% .3% 1% .3% .3% .3%
Don't know/NA 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 8%



Tracking Survey

Ciruli Associates provides a daily tracking survey for 9KUSA, Denver Post, and KOA NewsRadio.

The daily poll began publication and broadcast on October 25 and 26, 2000. The survey results from October 28 follow.


Polling Highlights October 28, 2000
9KUSA/KOA NewsRadio/Denver Post poll

  • Support collapses for initially highly popular growth control and tax cut initiatives. (Broadcast/published first on October 25 and 26.

  • Year long support for background checks on gun show sales continues. Headed for big victory.

  • In last 4 days, support for medical marijuana and abortion delay has declined. Abortion delay clearly in trouble.

  • After growth control and tax cut initiatives, the Amendment with the most impact on state finances and education policy is the education funding guarantee (Amendment 23). Support has dropped but remains high.

  • The poll indicates support for Powerball continues but lacks much enthusiasm.

  • Governor George W. Bush has increased his lead to double digits over Vice President Al Gore during the week – now 50% to 35%.
  • Bush wins more of his base partisans than Gore, 89% of Republicans for Bush, 81% of Democrats for Gore and 5% of Democrats for Nader.

  • Today there is no gender gap in Colorado. Bush is winning men and women by 16%.

  • Gore has a slight advantage with unaffiliated voters, 37% for Gore to 31% for Bush. But Bush is running better with voters with a middle of the road political philosophy, 43% to 38%.

  • Bush is carrying 36% of Hispanics and 25% of Blacks, high for recent Republican presidential candidates.

  • Bush scores highest with Depression and WWII era voters (55% and 57% respectively). Gore does best with the low turnout youngest voters (47%) and older baby boomers (41%). Nader's main attraction is with voters under 34 years old. (10% among 18-24, and 13% among 25-34 year old voters).

  • Bush leads in the metro area 46% to 42%. The metro area has been a good barometer of the national vote margin in the last two presidential elections. Bush wins the non-metro area 56% to 27% over Gore.


POLICY QUESTIONS
Presidential Election

If the 2000 election were held today and the candidates were the Democrat Al Gore, the Republican George W. Bush, the Freedom Party candidate Pat Buchanan, and the Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, whom would you vote for Al Gore, George Bush, Pat Buchanan, or Ralph Nader?

. Sept 29 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28
Bush 44% 44% 45% 47% 47% 50%
Gore 35% 40% 38% 37% 36% 35%
Nadar 6% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4%
Buchanan 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Won't vote (vol) .4% .3% 1% .3% .3% .3%
Don't know/NA 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 8%

DON'T KNOW ANSWER IN Q1, ASK: Well as of today, do you lean more toward Al Gore, George Bush, Pat Buchanan or Ralph Nader?

. Sept 29 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28
Bush 10% 25% 25% 25% 26% 23%
Gore 21% 21% 23% 25% 24% 21%
Nadar 6% 5% 5% - - 3%
Buchanan - 2% 2% 2% 2% -
Other (vol) 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% -
Don't know/NA 60% 44% 43% 46% 45% 53%
Base 48 Base 48 Base 44 Base 44 Base 42 Base 34



Ballot Issues

The following are issues that will be on the Colorado election ballot in November 2000. I will read a short description of each proposal in the order they will appear on the ballot. Each of the issues has supporters and opponents conducting campaigns and arguing the good and bad points. After I read each proposal please tell me, as of today, do you definitely support the issue, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or definitely oppose the issue.

. Definitely
Support
Somewhat
Support
Somewhat
Oppose
Definitely
Oppose
Don't
Know
Amendment 20 allows seriously ill patients to use marijuana for medical purposes with a doctor's approval
Sept 29 47% 20% 7% 21% 5%
Oct 24 43% 18% 9% 26% 4%
Oct 25 39% 17% 10% 29% 5%
Oct 26 38% 16% 10% 31% 5%
Oct 27 41% 15% 9% 31% 4%
Oct 28 41% 15% 7% 33% 4%

. Definitely
Support
Somewhat
Support
Somewhat
Oppose
Definitely
Oppose
Don't
Know
Amendment 21 cuts taxes by $25 a year ($50 the second year, $75 the third year etc.) on each utility, motor vehicle, income and property tax collected by Colorado state or local governments, or taxing districts
Sept 29 33% 20% 10% 20% 17%
Oct 24 16% 12% 12% 42% 18%
Oct 25 17% 12% 10% 44% 17%
Oct 26 19% 11% 8% 47% 15%
Oct 27 17% 11% 7% 53% 12%
Oct 28 18% 10% 6% 54% 12%


. Definitely
Support
Somewhat
Support
Somewhat
Oppose
Definitely
Oppose
Don't
Know
Amendment 22 requires a criminal background check on everyone buying a gun at gun shows
Sept 29 69% 8% 6% 13% 4%
Oct 24 70% 11% 3% 14% 2%
Oct 25 66% 11% 4% 17% 2%
Oct 26 67% 10% 4% 17% 3%
Oct 27 70% 7% 3% 17% 3%
Oct 28 68% 7% 3% 18% 4%

. Definitely
Support
Somewhat
Support
Somewhat
Oppose
Definitely
Oppose
Don't
Know
Amendment 23 takes money from surplus state tax revenue to increase state funding for kindergarten through 12th grade public schools by 1 percent plus the rate of inflation each year for the next 10 years
Sept 29 52% 18% 7% 13% 10%
Oct 24 45% 18% 7% 16% 14%
Oct 25 45% 18% 8% 16% 13%
Oct 26 45% 18% 7% 18% 12%
Oct 27 46% 19% 6% 20% 9%
Oct 28 44% 18% 6% 21% 11%

. Definitely
Support
Somewhat
Support
Somewhat
Oppose
Definitely
Oppose
Don't
Know
Amendment 24 requires cities and counties of more than 10,000 people to develop growth plans and boundaries that would have to be approved by local voters. Growth outside the boundaries would require voter approval
Sept 29 45% 17% 6% 19% 13%
Oct 24 22% 12% 9% 44% 13%
Oct 25 21% 12% 10% 47% 10%
Oct 26 22% 11% 9% 50% 8%
Oct 27 22% 9% 9% 52% 8%
Oct 28 20% 11% 9% 53% 7%

. Definitely
Support
Somewhat
Support
Somewhat
Oppose
Definitely
Oppose
Don't
Know
Amendment 25 requires a 24-hour waiting period for an abortion, and that women be given information about alternatives to abortion and risks of the procedure
Sept 29 42% 14% 9% 26% 9%
Oct 24 43% 14% 4% 30% 9%
Oct 25 43% 13% 5% 31% 8%
Oct 26 44% 12% 5% 33% 6%
Oct 27 39% 11% 6% 38% 6%
Oct 28 37% 12% 6% 40% 5%

. Definitely
Support
Somewhat
Support
Somewhat
Oppose
Definitely
Oppose
Don't
Know
Referendum E allows Colorado to join other states in multi-state lotteries such as Powerball. Excess money would go to school construction
Sept 29 38% 20% 7% 24% 11%
Oct 24 36% 23% 7% 22% 12%
Oct 25 40% 21% 4% 23% 12%
Oct 26 43% 18% 4% 25% 10%
Oct 27 44% 16% 4% 27% 9%
Oct 28 43% 16% 4% 29% 8%

. Definitely
Support
Somewhat
Support
Somewhat
Oppose
Definitely
Oppose
Don't
Know
Referendum F takes $250 million of surplus state tax revenue over the next five years for grants to public schools for math and science programs
Sept 29 48% 20% 8% 12% 12%
Oct 24 41% 27% 7% 11% 14%
Oct 25 41% 24% 7% 13% 15%
Oct 26 44% 19% 8% 15% 14%
Oct 27 44% 18% 7% 17% 14%
Oct 28 43% 18% 7% 18% 14%


Ballot Issue Summary

Support
Ballot Issue Sept 29 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28
Gun checks (A22) 77% 81% 77% 77% 77% 75%
School funds (A23) 70% 63% 63% 63% 65% 63%
Math and science grants (RE) 68% 68% 65% 63% 62% 61%
Medical marijuana (A20) 67% 61% 56% 54% 56% 56%
Anti-growth (A24) 62% 34% 33% 33% 31% 31%
Powerball (RF) 58% 59% 61% 61% 60% 59%
Abortion inform (A25) 56% 57% 56% 56% 50% 49%
Tax cuts (A21) 53% 28% 29% 30% 28% 28%

Oppose
Ballot Issue Sept 29 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28
Gun checks (A22) 19% 17% 21% 21% 20% 21%
School funds (A23) 20% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27%
Math and science grants (RE) 20% 18% 20% 23% 24% 25%
Medical marijuana (A20) 28% 35% 39% 41% 40% 40%
Anti-growth (A24) 25% 53% 57% 59% 61% 62%
Powerball (RF) 31% 29% 27% 29% 31% 33%
Abortion inform (A25) 35% 34% 36% 38% 44% 46%
Tax cuts (A21) 30% 54% 54% 55% 60% 60%

Don't Know
Ballot Issue Sept 29 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28
Gun checks (A22) 4% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4%
School funds (A23) 10% 14% 13% 12% 9% 11%
Math and science grants (RE) 12% 14% 15% 14% 14% 14%
Medical marijuana (A20) 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4%
Anti-growth (A24) 13% 13% 10% 8% 8% 7%
Powerball (RF) 11% 12% 12% 10% 9% 8%
Abortion inform (A25) 9% 9% 8% 6% 6% 5%
Tax cuts (A21) 17% 18% 17% 15% 12% 12%
* List in order of original popularity.


DEMOGRAPHIC QUESTIONS

The final questions are for background information only. The answers to these questions help us to understand the results.

Your answers to these questions, like all the survey questions, are confidential and used only when combined with all other persons who are interviewed.


How old are you?
. Oct 28
18 - 24 8%
25 -34 15%
35 - 44 20%
45 - 54 20%
55 - 64 16%
65 and over 2%
Refused 1%

Considering political parties, would you say you usually identify yourself as a:
. Oct 28 . Oct 28
Strong Democrat 10%
Moderate Democrat
21% Democrat
31%
An unaffiliated voter
21% Unaffiliated
21%
Moderate Republican
23% Republican
45%
Strong Republican
22%
Other (vol)
2%
Don’t know/refused 1%

Are you from a Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background? [MARK BELOW]

With which race do you identify yourself — white, black, Asian or some other ethnic or racial background?
. Oct 28
White 88%
Hispanic 7%
Black 1%
Asian -
Other 2%
Refused 2%



Thinking about your political philosophy would you consider yourself as:
. Oct 28 . Oct 28
Very libera 2%
Liberal 19% Liberal 21%
Middle of the road 35% Middle 35%
Conservative 30% Conservative 39%
Very Conservative 9%
Other 2%
Don’t know/refused 3%

Gender:
. Oct 28
Male 50%
Female 50%


Presidential Election
Crosstabulations
October 28
Ballot Issue Total Bush
Gore
Nader
Buchanan Don’t know
TOTAL 50% 35% 4% 1% 8%

Congressional District
1 15% 32% 53% 3% - 12%
2 17% 43% 46% 4% - 7%
3 18% 49% 32% 4% 1% 10%
4 17% 59% 26% 6% 1% 6%
5 19% 68% 20% 3% 1% 8%
6 14% 47% 38% 4% - 9%

Area Metro 54% 46% 42% 4% - 8%
Non-Metro 46% 56% 27% 4% 2% 9%

Gender
- Male 50% 50% 34% 5% 1% 8%
- Female 50% 52% 36% 3% 1% 8%

Party (Self ID)
- Democrat 31% 9% 81% 5% 1% 4%
- Unaffiliated 21% 31% 37% 10% 1% 19%
- Republican 45% 89% 2% 1% 1% 6%

Race/Ethnic
- White 88% 52% 33% 4% 1% 9%
- Hispanic 7% 36% 51% - - 7%
- Black 1% 25% 75% - - -

Ideology
- Liberal 21% 8% 78% 8% - 5%
- Middle 35% 43% 38% 2% 1% 15%
- Conservative 39% 83% 8% 3% 1% 4%

Age
18 - 24 8% 20% 47% 10% 1% 17%
25 - 34 15% 51% 36% 13% 1% 5%
35 - 44 20% 51% 36% 5% - 7%
45 - 54 20% 49% 41% 4% - 6%
55 - 64 16% 55% 34% 5% - 6%
64 plus 20% 57% 26% 1% 1% 13%

SURVEY FACTS
  • A telephone survey of 400 Colorado registered voters sponsored by 9-KUSA News, KOA 850 News Radio and the Denver Post.

  • Interviews were conducted by Ciruli Associates October 25 to October 28, 2000, with 400 registered voters selected by random methodology screened for their likelihood to vote. The tracking survey methodology contacted a total of 400 respondents over four nights. Each night, a new group of 100 people are contacted and the first 100 respondents are removed from the sample. Each day's results are based on the preceding four days of interviews.

  • Statistical range of accuracy in 19 out of 20 cases is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points for a sample size of 400. Due to rounding not all totals equal 100 percent.

  • Conducted for publication in www.ciruli.com, the official web site of pollster Floyd Ciruli.

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