Ballot Positions Set for November as
Conservatives Consolidate Positions
August 1998

While the August 1998 primary season lacked passion, the nominees of both parties for Governor and Senate promise aggressive, well-financed races through November. Women will take center stage in top statewide races, while Democrats and Republicans will battle over ideology. An examination of the primary results shows that the victorious candidates of both parties moved the center of the political spectrum to the right. That center could shift even further if conservatives prevail in November.

Major Findings

• Bill Owens and Ben Nighthorse Campbell represent the Republican Party's strongest team for the state's top offices since John Love and Peter Dominick ran for Governor and Senator in 1962. Owens is the most articulate and well- positioned conservative to compete for Governor in the post-Goldwater/Reagan era. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, who switched party affiliation, begins his campaign in a strong position after his primary sweep. Gail Schoettler and Dottie Lamm, the historic feminine duo who will bid for the Governorship and U.S. Senate, secured their positions by defeating the Democratic Party's economic interest groups: They represent the center of economic issues, but the liberal viewpoint on feminist and environmental issues.
  
  
• Colorado's 2nd Congressional District race could give Republicans their first victory in that seat since 1972. The evenly matched Bob Greenlee (R) and Mark Udall (D) fight will likely set state spending records for Congressional races.
  
  
• Conservatives now dominate the Republican caucus in the State Senate and have moved to parity in the House. Leadership and policy changes reflecting the new conservative ideology can be expected. Democrats have a long-shot chance to gain control of the State Senate, and Republicans may gain seats in the House.
  
  
• Voter turnout was low, but in the normal range for Colorado party primaries. It likely presages a low turnout for the upcoming general election. The Republican registration advantage was enhanced by greater Republican turnout (more than 70,000 voters), a double hit that could sink Democratic chances in close general election races.
  

Colorado Primary Analysis
August 1998

The August 11 primary could be described as an election of few surprises. However, the results portend a heated general election season as women take center stage and Republicans and Democrats conduct a high-stakes battle over ideology. As expected, primary turnout was low, signalling a general lack of public interest in this political season so far.

The Democrats will run female candidates for the state's two highest profile races, U.S. Senate and Governor. If either is successful, she would be the first Colorado woman to hold such an office. Also, the Democrats might have found their next rising star in Mark Udall. The price may be the fact that his race against Boulder Mayor Bob Greenlee for the 2nd Congressional District will be the most expensive congressional race in the state's history.

Ciruli Associates 1998

1998 PRIMARY GOVERNOR AND SENATE
DEMOCRAT			REPUBLICAN
	#	%		#	%
Governor:			Governor:
Schoettler	80,024	56	Owens	126,803	59
Feeley	64,002	44	Norton	87,243	41
Total	144,026		Total	214,046
Senate:			Senate:
Lamm	84,961	58	Campbell	154,687	70
Romero	61,643	42	Eggert	66,438	30
Total	146,604		Total	221,125

Republicans are now trying to unify after a divisive primary, especially at the statehouse level. Although some observers claim that moderates withstood another conservative challenge, conservatives have a Republican nominee for governor, won every state senate primary in which a conservative had entered, and won enough House primaries to ensure a strong presence when the legislature convenes next January. And, they likely will control three of six Congressional seats by year's end.

Turnout

In contested primaries, the August 11 voter turnout was low, but not unusual. Typically, 25 to 30 percent of Republican partisans turn out in hotly contested primaries; 25 percent turned out this year. Democratic turnout was even lower at 19 percent.

Approximately 70,000 more Republicans voted, which partially reflects greater registration, but also indicates greater interest and participation in the party's primary. Typically, primary turnout is a predictor of voter participation in November in this case low, but advantage Republican.

(c) = contested / Ciruli Associates 1998

PRIMARY TURNOUT TOP OF TICKET
	REPUBLICAN		DEMOCRAT
Date	Race	Vote	Race	Vote
1990	Senate	29%	Senate (c)	34%
1992	Senate	19%	Senate (c)	43%
1994	Governor (c)	27%	Governor	11%
1996	Senate (c)	25%	Senate (c)	19%
1998	Senate (c)	25%	Senate (c)	19%

U.S. Senate

Despite losing the party convention endorsement and lacking a central message, Dottie Lamm had enough money and name recognition from her husband's long career to easily win over lesser-known Gil Romero. Her next challenge will be more formidable as she faces Ben Nighthorse Campbell, who ran some of the most stylish television of the season and dominated his more conservative opponent Bill Eggert. In addition, Lamm's greatest asset, her husband's name identification, is also a major handicap. Some rank and file Democrats, organized labor and Hispanics long alienated from Dick Lamm supported Romero in the primary and will require a major effort to attract them to the Lamm camp. Lamm recently won the Colorado AFL-CIO endorsement, but the vote was close and controversial.

The general election campaign should be spirited in part because Lamm, an able public speaker, is expected to attack Campbell on his changing positions, a lack of legislative energy and on key liberal issues, such as gun control, education reform, campaign finance and teen smoking.

Ciruli Associates 1998

SENATE CAMPAIGN RESULTS AND SPENDING
Date	Candidate	Vote	Spending
1986	Wirth (D)	50%	$3.8 million
	Kramer (R)	48%	$3.8 million
1990	Brown (R)	56%	$3.7 million
	Heath (D)	42%	$1.9 million
1992	Campbell (D)	52%	$1.6 million
	Considine (R)	43%	$2.2 million
1996	Allard (R)	51%	$2.2 million
	Strickland (D)	46%	$2.9 million

Each candidate should raise and spend at least $2 million and up to $4 million. The 1996 Allard vs. Strickland race spent $5 million combined. The state record was the 1986 Wirth vs. Kramer race in which $7.6 million was spent.

U.S. Congress

Republicans now control four of six Congressional seats, and could gain one more. In the 2nd Congressional District, State Representative Mark Udall, who petitioned onto the ballot after one term in the State Legislature, beat Colorado University law professor Gene Nichol. Although their positions on the issues appeared similar (manage growth, improve education and attack HMOs), Udall was able to position himself as a new Democrat, and conversely, Nichol as an old one. Udall's newness and family celebrity status (he is the son of Morris Udall, 30-year former Arizona congressman and chairman of the House Interior Committee, and nephew of Stewart Udall, President Kennedy's Secretary of the Interior) are assets in a district that has had substantial recent growth and where most voters are registered unaffiliated. But Udall will face a difficult challenge against Republican Bob Greenlee, who easily beat primary opponent Larry Johnson. Greenlee, a self-made millionaire through successful communications and entertainment ventures, is a moderate Republican that this district could support. He begins with a base of support in the City of Boulder where he is mayor. Greenlee's entrepreneurial background and preference for limited government should be attractive to voters in the high-tech Boulder valley.

This may be Colorado's first $2 million congressional race as both candidates will try to define themselves through expensive media campaigns. The record of $1.3 million was set in the 1996 DeGette/Rogers contest in Denver.

Ciruli Associates 1998

CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN RESULTS AND SPENDING
Date	Candidate	Vote	Spending
1986	Skaggs (D)	51%	$519,000
	Norton (R)	49%	$491,000
1988	Schaefer (R)	63%	$636,000
	Ezzard (D)	36%	$489,000
1990	Allard (R)	54%	$360,000
	Bond (D)	46%	$481,000
1992	McInnis (R)	55%	$434,000
	Callihan (D)	44%	$326,000
1996	DeGette (D)	57%	$889,000
	Rogers (R)	40%	$423,000

The 6th Congressional District race is all but over given the Republicans substantial registration advantage over Democrats. In a confusing five-way race, former state legislator and conservative talk show host Tom Tancredo beat current legislators Bill Schroeder, Martha Kreutz, Barry Arrington and former legislator Sam Zhakhem. Tancredo's high-profile conservatism, along with endorsements from Bill Armstrong and Terry Considine, were reasons for his strong showing, especially in Arapahoe County. While Tancredo's small primary vote (only 10,000) must be converted into district-wide Republican support, in all likelihood Tancredo will join fellow conservatives Joel Hefley and Bob Schaffer as one-half of Colorado's conservative congressional delegation.

Governor

With help from Romer's political machine (especially access to money), Lieutenant Governor Gail Schoettler beat Senate Minority Leader Mike Feeley.Schoettler's name recognition from years of public office combined with a year-long campaign overcame her stiff presentation and fuzzy message. Feeley, who was little known six months ago, dominated the June Democratic state convention with the help of organized labor, but was unable to find an issue or the money to translate it into voter support. In a low-turnout election, organized labor failed to deliver.

Schoettler's next opponent won't have Feeley's problem in raising money. State Treasurer Bill Owens, who has raised the most money of any candidate so far, easily beat Senate President Tom Norton for the Republican nomination. Despite Norton's attacks on Owens' conservatism, voting attendance as a legislator and draft deferment, he only carried eight counties out of 63 and even lost his home base of Weld County. Owens' message of lower taxes, government efficiency and improved highways was successful.

Ciruli Associates 1998

ROMER'S GUBENATORIAL ELECTIONS
Date	Democrat	Vote	Republican	Vote
1990	Romer	55%	Benson	39%
1992	Romer	64%	Andrews	36%
1994	Romer	58%	Strickland	41%

Schoettler versus Owens will be the showcase event this November. Schoettler will argue that voters should not switch from a winning formula or lose the checks and balances of a Democratic governor and Republican legislature. She follows in the footsteps of Roy Romer's incredibly successful career. In addition, she will try to fan liberal fears that Owens is a conservative zealot. Conversely, Owens will make the case that a Schoettler victory will continue 24 years of Democratic state government waste and poor priorities. He also has the advantage of increasingly conservative voting trends in the state since the early 1990s.

November Election

Colorado is setting national precedence with two strong women candidates for the state's two highest offices running at the same time. Not since Barbara Boxer and Diane Finestein both ran for California Senate seats in 1992 has there been this level of interest from feminist groups and liberal media commentators.

Ciruli Associates 1998

COLORADO WOMEN AS CANDIDATES
Date	Candidate	Vote	Spending
1980	Hart (D)	50%	$1,100,000
	Buchanan (R)	49%	$1,100,000
1984	Armstrong (R)	64%	$3,000,000
	Dick (D)	35%	$840,000
1990	Brown (R)	56%	$3.7 million
	Heath (D)	42%	$1.9 million

Three previous women candidates for Senate in Colorado have all lost, with the best showing by Republican Secretary of State Mary Estell Buchanan who almost upset Gary Hart's re- election effort in the 1980 Reagan presidential year.

Colorado's growth since 1990 has benefited Republicans with a 120,000 voter registration advantage over Democrats. However, the surge in the last 24 months in unaffiliated registrations makes the battle in November for the unaffiliated voter.

As with the nation at large, voter turnout has been declining in Colorado; November will likely continue the trend. It's possible that in this non-presidential election less than half the registered voters will show up to choose a senator and a governor.

Low turnout will help the Republican candidates as Republicans have a larger base and more committed voters. Democrats also face a potential backlash from Bill Clinton's self-confessed lying to the American people. While Clinton's August 17 statement may provide short-term relief, the investigation of perjury and obstruction continues, and voters may yet render their judgment in November against all Democrats.

Pre- and immediately post-primary polls indicate that the Governor's race is very close. As the incumbent senator, Ben Nighthorse Campbell starts with a significant advantage, which Dottie Lamm will be able to overcome only if Campbell makes mistakes.

Ciruli Associates 1998

EARLY POLLS - SENATE AND GOVERNOR RACE
Mason-Dixon	Owens	38%	Campbell	46%
Reprinted 8/1 & 8/6	Schoettler	36%	Lamm	34%
9 News	Owens	40%	Campbell	59%
Reprinted 8/15	Schoettler	36%	Lamm	29%

The Conservative Factor

The center of the political spectrum has moved to the right in Colorado during the 1990s. The 1998 election may complete the conservative's near hegemony in Colorado state government. Several political trends have been especially helpful to conservative candidates against their more moderate opponents, both Republican and Democratic.

• The Registration and Turnout Advantage. Much has been written about the large registration advantage that the Republican Party now enjoys statewide in Colorado. Republicans hold a registration edge in 37 of Colorado's 63 counties and unaffiliated registrants dominate in another 12. Many of the new Republicans have flocked to western and southern metro suburbs, and to Douglas County, Grand Junction and the Colorado Springs area. Combining conservative fervor in an environment of generally low turnout, Republicans are dominating state elections and conservatives are dominating the Republican party.
  
  
• Quality of Candidates. Whereas several years ago, most conservatives were one-issue candidates and appeared to abhor the political process, today's candidates advocate many issues beyond just being pro-life or pro-guns. No longer stealth candidates, many conservatives run aggressive, visible campaigns on a range of issues, such as lower taxes, school reform and less overall regulation. In addition, many conservatives, such as Bill Owens, have outgoing personalities that appeal to more moderate Republicans and unaffiliates. Family Values and Ballot Issues. Republicans and especially conservatives have gained considerable advantage with their emphasis on family values. Conservatives are putting forth policy initiatives to strengthen the family and using it extensively in political advertising. Charter schools, home schooling and even vouchers, parental notification and partial birth abortion bans have become staples of Republican campaigns. Translating the issues into ballot initiatives has built up constituencies for the social agenda. This year, abortion and voucher initiatives will again activate the Republican base.
  
  
• The Growth of the Tax Rebellion. The anti-tax movement empowered by the passage of the TABOR Amendment in 1992 now frames most state campaigns. Conservative Republicans have seized the general anti-tax sentiment and focused in on Colorado state government. The new dividing line between conservatives and Republican moderates or Democrats is over keeping state surplus funds as defined by the TABOR Amendment. While many Republican moderates and most Democrats advocate that government be able to spend surplus funds, an activist wing in the Republican party has achieved advantage by advocating both no new taxes and disallowing state government to spend surplus money.

Conservatives will provide a majority of the Republican Party's nominees on the November ballot. They will dominate the State Senate Republican caucus and be near a majority of State House Republicans. What the November general election will test is whether they can capture moderates and swing voters in a state that has tended to prefer centrists of both parties.

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