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Ciruli Associates' Local Polls Prove Accurate
December 12, 2006
Ciruli Associates conducted election polls during the 2006 election in Adams County and the City of Pueblo, which were highly accurate descriptions of the final results and election dynamics. The polls provide useful road maps for local election strategies.
In Adams County, county officials authorized a test of county voter sentiment for a renewal of a transportation and capital improvement sales tax that had been in place for more than ten years. The Ciruli Associates poll of August 2006 showed an initial support level of 65 percent. A campaign was devised around the themes and messages identified by the poll. The survey result was within the margin of error of the final result.
A poll was conducted for the Pueblo Economic Development Corporation (PEDCO) testing the renewal of a 20-year-old half-cent sales tax used to attract primary business to Pueblo. A campaign was conducted that hewed closely to the themes identified by the poll.
A second proposal, which PEDCO opposed, would have shifted administration of the economic development funds from the private sector to city administration. The poll correctly predicted overwhelming voter opposition to the proposal. Also tested was a county-sponsored time-out of the TABOR tax limitation allowing the county to spend five years of surplus revenue on county building and recreation projects. The poll showed voters favoring the concept.
The undecided voters identified in the September survey overwhelmingly voted to oppose all three proposals in the November election.
The congruence of survey data with the final votes demonstrates how the campaigns were able to reinforce basic voter support, address questions and position the proposals. On these particular issues, there was little organized opposition, and voter opinion remained stable during the fall campaign period.