Ciruli Associates - Colorado Politics - Polls - Research


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	Ciruli In The NEWS February 2006 Boulder Daily Camera, Steven K. Paulson (AP), Feb. 7, 2006 Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper announced he would not run for governor, despite Democrats ready to back him. Independent polltaker Floyd Ciruli said several influential, wealthy Democrats were urging Hickenlooper to run. Ciruli said Hickenlooper, whose term ends in July 2007, felt an obligation to finish it. “Fundamentally, he was two years out of sync. He felt pressure to keep working on the job and drawing his Cabinet together. There was too much weighing against it,” Ciruli said. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Lou Kilzer, Feb. 7, 2006 Candidate for Colorado governor, former-District Attorney Bill Ritter, still has a problem to overcome: the abortion issue. Several big-money Democrats and old party pols were working to conscript (Denver Mayor John) Hickenlooper, political consultant Floyd Ciruli said. Some in the party are “having trouble uniting behind Ritter,” he said. “He still has a problem.” That problem centers on one issue: abortion. Ritter is personally opposed to abortion, although he says he would not back any effort to criminalize women or their doctors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Denver Post, Karen E. Crummy, Feb. 1, 2006 Candidates vying in the state’s 7^th Congressional District have collected about $1.5 million in total campaign contributions—not a paltry sum, but a mere down payment on what is expected to be an expensive and hard-fought race. “This is war. It’s the No. 1 competitive seat in the country and it’s going to cost $7 or $8 million,” said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli. “A lot of that money is going to come from out-of-state interest groups.” January 2006 Fort Collins Coloradoan, Steven K. Paulson (AP), Jan. 22, 2006 Colorado’s ‘culture wars’ over such things as gay marriage, abortion and illegal immigration are moving from the Legislature to the ballot. Independent pollster Floyd Ciruli of Denver said Democrats have used the strategy for years to prod their supporters to the polls, offering bills that would ban the bomb or guarantee abortion rights. If supporters of a given issue don’t get what they want from the Legislature, they will go to the ballot via initiative. Ciruli said the tit-for-tat may undermine the legislative process. “We need to make the threshold higher to get on the ballot, either the number of signatures of a percentage of the vote,” Ciruli said. However, some conservatives would like to make ballot access easier. Ciruli said making the initiative process easier is dangerous because most voters won’t take the time to learn all they need t know about major issues, including abortion, illegal immigrants and gay rights. “We make massive changes and people don’t understand them.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Stuart Steers, Jan. 21, 2006 For much of the past week, many local Republicans have been looking at Marc Holtzman’s campaign for governor with a sense of dread, asking themselves, “Did he really say that?” Holtzman is insisting that the party has lost its way and points to the growing influence-peddling scandal in Washington as proof. “To take on the entire establishment and argue there’s got to be a shift to new forces and new folds is going to be difficult to accomplish,” predicted Denver political analyst Floyd Ciruli. “You’re taking on most of the party incumbents. You’re talking about senior officeholders and major fundraisers.” Ciruli noted that Republican moderates turned against their party nominees in a handful of legislative races in 2004, helping the Democrats to win control of both houses of the legislature. “You can get a nomination and the individual winning is unacceptable to a large faction of the party,” Ciruli said. “That’s a problem.” For Holtzman to succeed, Ciruli said, he has to convince Republicans that he’s going to be just the tonic the party needs. “He has to make a credible case that what he’s doing isn’t damaging the party but, rather, reinvigorating it,” Ciruli said. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Aspen Times, Steven K. Paulson (AP), Jan. 12, 2006 Colorado Gov. Bill Owens political star had faded by the time he gave his final State of the State address in January 2006. Even helping President George W. Bush win Colorado, and personally winning eight races in 20 years took a back seat to recent losses. “It (prior success) sort of faded away,” said Floyd Ciruli, an independent poster in Denver. Owens still has a 60 percent approval rating, according to Ciruli, who believes Owens still has political capital to spend. “He dominated the era of low taxes and small government,” Ciruli said. “To some extent, he became the real spokesperson, the real leader for the anti-tax, small government movement that dominated Colorado from 1992 on.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Denver Post, Anne C. Mulkern, Jan. 15, 2006 Heading into what looks like an all-but-certain confirmation for a Supreme Court seat, one of the few remaining mysteries in the Samuel Alito saga is how Colorado’s moderate-leaning Democratic senator will vote. “He is one of the most popular statewide politicians in all the surveys we conduct,” said Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli. “At least partially it is because he does act independent and gets some criticism from both sides.” Ciruli said that Salazar must weigh knowing that despite Colorado’s Republican leanings, 60 percent to 65 percent of voters believe the right to abortion should be constitutionally protected. However, there’s no polling data revealing whether those voters believe it should be an issue that should keep a nominee off the Supreme Court. Prognosticators split on what he’ll do and which vote is safest. Ciruli believes Salazar will vote against Alito, saying the senator “laid a considerable amount of groundwork for voting against.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Stuart Steers, Jan. 10, 2006 Colorado voters may be asked in the fall if they want to raise the state’s minimum wage, which has been stuck at $5.15 for the past eight years. Denver political analyst Floyd Ciruli said increasing the minimum wage is a popular idea with voters, and he notes that California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger recently endorsed the idea after previously opposing it. But Ciruli doubts the issue will generate the same heat as the hot button social questions. “I’m not sure it has as much passion as abortion or gay rights,” he said. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Stuart Steers, Jan. 6, 2006 This week marks the beginning of a crucial political year in Colorado, when several questions about politics in the state may finally be answered. “Colorado has become a battleground state for both liberal and conservative forces,” said Denver political consultant Floyd Ciruli. “It’s one of the state’s in play.” After a decade of conservative dominance in Colorado politics, Ciruli believes that Colorado has shifted to the center. He points to the passage of Referendum C this past fall as evidence that this trend has continued since 2004. “Republicans and conservatives tend to vote in higher numbers,” Ciruli said. “In a relatively low turnout election (for Referendum C), there was still a small but clear win for the forces that are more centrally positioned. The message was, ‘We don’t like taxes but we don’t hate government.’” Ciruli attributes the change in Colorado’s political climate to the end of the economic boom that the state experienced in the 1990s. Colorado was hard hit by the recession that began in 2001. The recession shifted the conversation very quickly. The governor and the Republicans were on the defensive. We were cutting budgets. In the last three years we’ve been talking about things that help Democrats, like how to get more funding for education and roads.” August 2003 Grand Junction Sentinel, Michael C. Bender, Aug. 17, 2003 This year, the Continental Divide that represents the state’s geographical division also serves as a political partition for ranchers, farmers and Realtors when it comes to Colorado’s first statewide water development ballot question in at least 50 years, a Daily Sentinel analysis has found. "The split between those who have the water and those who consume large amounts of water has been one of the most important conflicts in our state’s entire history," said Floyd Ciruli, a 20-year political pollster in Colorado. "But we don’t often debate water at the voter level. Typically it’s been an argument for politicians, water districts and lawyers." . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Michele Ames, Aug. 13, 2003 A proposed ballot issue aimed at changing the way Denver’s elected officials and city employees are paid enjoys strong support, according to a Ciruli Associates poll. About two-thirds of those polled support changes to salary and benefit packages for city workers, according to Denver-based Ciruli Associates. "This is a sign that the public is watching and have pretty much made a decision," said Floyd Ciruli. "They are ready to vote on the proposal they’ve seen." February 2003 Denver Post, Karen Crummy, Feb. 4, 2003 Denver mayoral candidates Don Mares, John Hickenlooper and Ari Zavaras are pursuing different campaign strategies as they tap into diverse donors. “Mares has a fundraising base from previous elections. He’s a labor guy and holds small fundraisers. Hickenlooper isn’t a professional politician, so he goes where his support is—small and midsized businesses,” said pollster Floyd Ciruli. January 2003 Denver Post, Joey Bunch, Jan. 24, 2003 Coloradans will come to think of this drought in terms of life before and life after, in much the same way Americans think of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Floyd Ciruli said. “It’s pre-9/11 and post9-11,” Ciruli told about 200 water managers, contractors, lawyers and politicos at the Colorado Water Congress’ annual convention. Eighty percent of the public believes water is a critical issues, but only 2 percent think the state is prepared to a prolonged drought, according to a July 2002 Ciruli poll. “The public will not tolerate (political) gridlock for too long, or they will look for new politicians.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Lisa Levitt Ryckman, Jan. 16, 2003 Pollster Floyd Ciruli said Wednesday that past elections have shown that in Denver, which takes its powerful mayoral government very seriously, key issues change like the weather. So what will Denver look for in a mayor on May 6? “They don’t want a pushover,” Ciruli said. “They like an individual who has some presence, some personal authority. They’ve got to come to the table with the idea that Denver is great and will be greater.” Past elections have made clear that candidates would be wise to distinguish themselves from the current administration, no matter how well liked. “There is a real vulnerability to being seen as the status quo candidate, no change, more of the same.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Steven K Paulson, AP, Jan. 12, 2003 Gov. Bill Owens’ second term begins on a strong note, and with talk that he will move on to national office. “He definitely is one of the most powerful governors in decades because he has more control of the budget,” Denver political analyst Floyd Ciruli said. Ciruli said Owens’ leadership on issues like transportation and education, as well as stepping into the Ramsey investigation, helped thrust him into the national spotlight. Ciruli said Owens, who is facing term limits in 2006, could be the best chance for a Coloradan to get into the White House since Gary Hart’s failed bid for the presidency in 1987. “It’s generally assumed he’ll do something.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Robert Sanchez, Jan. 1, 2003 Denver's mayoral candidates raised more than $1 million combined in 2002, ensuring that the race for the city's top elective office will be costly and intense. While donations early in a campaign give a candidate credibility, money often doesn't mean victory, said pollster and political analyst Floyd Ciruli. In 1991, Wellington Webb consistently finished third in fund-raising, behind former Denver district attorney Norm early and Republican lawyer Don Bain. Webb eventually beat Early in a runoff election after investing in sneakers and beginning an intense walking campaign throughout the city. "It's going to take several hundred thousand dollars to get in the game this time, but whether you have the most money might not be necessary," Ciruli said. "You need to at least be in the middle and wait until April...when bigger donors start backing people they think can win." December 2002 Associated Press, Dec. 26, 2002 Former U.S. Sen. Gary Hart is back in the political arena—talking of a presidential bid—15 years after a failed bid to win the nomination. Floyd Ciruli said that while many voters may have forgotten Hart and his withdrawl from the race amid an extramarital scandal, insiders have not. Ciruli told the AP that Hart would have a difficult time assembling the complex machinery of a presidential campaign. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Mike Patty, Dec. 21, 2002 As Christmas 2002 approached, the Christmas Eve blizzard of 1982 was remembered as the biggest factor in ending the political career of former Denver Mayor Bill McNichols. "I think the blizzard is one of those events that, if it had happened in complete isolation, it would have been nothing more than a temporary embarrassment to the mayor," said political analyst Floyd Ciruli. "But it didn't happen in isolation. In the minds of a lot of people, it proved the administration was not responsive, was getting a little long in the tooth, and that maybe it was time for change." Now, Ciruli says, "politicians have become a lot more sophisticated with the ‘mea culpa' situation. It was a mistake to come up with a long list of excuses, even if they were legitimate, than it was to admit them, apologize and move on." October 2002 Rocky Mountain News, Joe Garner, Oct. 2, 2002 The Regional Transportation District unveiled a plan for mass transit Tuesday that’s so sweeping it chafes the Colorado Department of Transportation, the state’s umbrella agency for roads and rails. Some say the FasTracks plan is too fast. Political pollster and analyst Floyd Ciruli said RTD has introduced “another ambitious plan because they have a problem doing one corridor at a time. What corridor would come next, and who would be left out?” He predicted the transit agency will have a problem convincing voters to approve a sales tax increase in tough economic times. “People have a history of saying they are in favor of tax increases to eliminate congestion,” Ciruli said. “ Then, when it comes to the election, they vote their pocketbook.” September 2002 Michael Riley and Mike Soraghan, Sept. 29, 2002 Gov. Bill Owens on Friday joined a rising chorus of the state’s elected officials backing a bill that would give permanent residency to an 18-year-old honor student and illegal immigrant whose case has deeply divided the Republican Party. The bill “carries a lot of symbolic weight,” said Floyd Ciruli, a political strategist in Denver. “It shows compassion and that the party is interested in issues important to Hispanics.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Denver Post, Eric Hubler, Sept. 29, 2002 Anti-bilingual education activists are scrambling to bolster their campaign after a Fort Collins philanthropist donated $3 million to help their opposition buy advertising. Pat Stryker’s gift to opponents of Amendment 31 on the Nov. 5 ballot likely was the largest contribution from an individual to an issue campaign in Colorado history, independent pollster Floyd Ciruli said. “Amendment 31 is in deep trouble,” Ciruli said. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Denver Post, Arthur Kane, Sept. 28, 2002 President Bush flew into town for three hours, raised a state record $1.5 million for Colorado Republicans and made House candidate Bob Beauprez the story of the day. It was definitely a visit Republicans can take to the bank, but opinions were mixed on whether Friday’s fundraising sweep will help bring a victory in November. “The voters have moved on from the point where coattails are a lifeline for lower politicians,” Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli said. “It puts you in the news for a day and raises a lot of money.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . New York Times, Michael Janofsky, Sept. 3, 2002 Recent independent statewide polls have shown (Rep. U.S. Senate incumbent Wayne) Allard holding a modest but steady lead, with the only good news for (Democrat challenger Tom) Strickland being that Mr. Allard's support remains under 50 percent with about a fifth of respondents undecided. About 36 percent of Colorado voters are registered as Republican and 30 percent as Democrats; 34 percent are unaffiliated. "I don't think Strickland can survive if he is not within eight points, at four or five, right after Labor Day," said Floyd Ciruli, whose firm conducted a poll in mid-July that showed Mr. Allard leading Mr. Strickland by 46 percent to 37 percent, with negligible support for third-party candidates. "Unless he can close, it's going to be tougher for him to get money in a year money is tight." August 2002 Trinidad Chronicle, Associated Press, Aug. 21, 2002 The primary votes for four of Colorado's seven congressional seats were barely counted when politics in the race for a U.S. Senate seat took a negative turn. "This is going to be a nasty campaign, and they're going to fight it out all the way on television," pollster Floyd Ciruli said. Ciruli said politicians take risks with negative ads. "There is a danger these negative ads will turn off the voters, who say they do not like negative advertising. If voters turn them off and say a plague on both their houses, that helps the incumbent. That may be Allard's strategy," Ciruli said. "It has not backfired yet, but it could. Allard has a positive image, he's a nice person, a veterinarian who stayed out of controversy in the Senate. One of the dangers is that it could smear the person who put it up." . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Boulder Daily Camera, Sandra Fish, Aug. 16, 2002 Republicans demonstrated a show of unity Wednesday after two contentious congressional primaries, a sharp contrast to the bickering that marred contests two years ago and some say cost them the state Senate. "They are moving very, very rapidly to unify," said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli. "While open seats still produce competition, as you can see in the 4th and 7th (districts), the leadership exercised some behind-the-scenes discipline." Two years ago, Republicans conducted nasty battles for several Senate seats. Ciruli said that figured into the loss of the state Senate to Democrats for the first time in 40 years. "Moderates–by and large–walked away," he said. "I don't see that happening here. It is conceivable, although it would take a lot of good luck, that they could win everything," Ciruli said of Republicans, citing Allard's race, the 4th and 7th U.S. House seats, the governor's race, the state Senate and the state House. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Grand Junction Daily Sentinel, Michael C. Bender, Aug. 16, 2002 Grand Junction High School alumna Jane Norton was selected Thursday as Gov. Bill Owens' running mate in the November election. As lieutenant governor, Norton would be first in line to take over gubernatorial duties if the ticket won in November and Owens later left office. In the latest Ciruli Associates polls, Owens is leading (challenger Rollie) Heath 56 percent to 28 percent. According to the poll, 61 percent of men favor Owens, while 52 percent of women give Owens the nod. Norton probably won't do much to change those numbers, pollster Floyd Ciruli said. "The governor already has substantial numbers, and a lot of people don't vote for lieutenant governor," Ciruli said. "But I assume Miss Norton certainly wouldn't hurt. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Peggy Lowe, Aug. 14, 2002 Congresswoman Diana DeGette trounced Denver city Councilwoman Ramona Martinez on Tuesday, tossing aside one challenge to her fourth term. DeGette needed to garner 65 percent to 70 percent of the vote, which she did, to put to rest lingering Colorado Democratic party doubts, said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver pollster. Some have questioned her ability to continue to win labor and Hispanic votes for the party base, he said. “DeGette winning handily lets her say, ‘This has largely been a personality situation with Councilwoman Martinez,’” Ciruli said. If Martinez had done better than expected, there would have been lingering doubt about whether DeGette is a long-term congresswoman, he said. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Peggy Lowe, Aug. 14, 2002 Denver City Council members’ attempt to secure a pay raise for themselves failed miserably Tuesday night. “I think the voters said, ‘What part of no don’t you understand?’” said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver pollster. The increase would have added $23,645, for a total of $85,949 a year. “It’s mind-staggering that they even conceived of putting it on the ballot,” Ciruli said. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Denver Post, Arthur Kane, August 2002 The candidates for U.S. Senate are likely to spend thousands of dollars in television ads trying to tie each other to the corporate scandals that have cost investors their life savings and employees their jobs. It’s a hot issue in August, but it is unclear if current outrage will last into November. “Voters are not overly attentive and fairly forgiving,” said political poster Floyd Ciruli of Denver. “They don’t blame you unless you’re known as an activist on the issue.” Dick Wadhams, campaign spokesman for incumbent U.S. Sen. Wayne Allard, says Allard’s challenger Tom Strickland “is the only candidate in America, Democrat or Republican, who was a federally registered lobbyist for a scandal-plagued firm.” Ciruli said the issue might resonate all the way to the general election if the economy is still slumping and there isn’t a major diversion, such as a terrorist attack. “Because it’s a pocketbook issue, it could play in November,” Ciruli said. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Denver Post, Trent Seibert, August 2002 The Republican voter edge is growing in Colorado. “It began early in the decade,” said Denver-based pollster Floyd Ciruli, who has been monitoring such trends. “By 1994, there was a significant Republican advantage. Now it’s even bigger. It’s just huge. That’s a tremendous advantage, needless to say, for statewide candidates. Those advantages aren’t always obvious, according to political scientists. For example, Ciruli has information showing that more than 50 percent of registered voters are not strongly committed to their party, meaning they are a wild card when they walk into the voting booth. And it doesn’t necessarily mean more money for candidates because the lion’s share of money comes from big-moneyed activists, rather than rank-and-file party members, Ciruli said. He added that the advantages show up in the advertising realm, where candidates have a bigger base to target specific mailings, and in manpower, meaning there is a bigger pool from which to choose campaign volunteers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . National Journal, Louis Jacobson, July 30-Aug. 2 In a four-part series on Colorado political races, writer Louis Jacobson quoted Floyd Ciruli on various issues. 7/30 Republican registration in Colorado has grown, and U.S. Sen. and Republican re-election candidate Wayne Allard has recently emphasized environmental issues. “These factors come on top of the normal benefits of incumbency, the idea that you don’t kick out incumbents willy-nilly, said Floyd Ciruli. “I assumed that he race would narrow, but at best, there’s mixed evidence of that.” A Democratic poll in late June showed Allard up by only 43-42 percent, but politicos here said they considered that overly optimistic. Earlier polls suggested margins of more than a dozen points. But a Ciruli poll, conducted July 8-14 for the Denver Post, KUSA-TV and KOA Radio, found Allard’s lead had contracted. It showed him leading Strickland 46-37 percent. That poll had a 4-point error margin. 7/31 Democrat Mike Feeley, vying for the new 7th Congressional District seat, goes into the general election with a slight advantage. “For the general, I think the Democrats can count on a 5-point spread—a little less if it’s Bob Beauprez (as the candidate) and a little more if it’s Rick O’Donnell, said Ciruli. 8/1 GOP registration outpaces Democratic registration, 39-25 percent, in the 4th Congressional District, according to Ciruli Associates, a Denver-based polling and consulting firm. Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore lost the district by more than 50,000 votes. While the Democrats often have fun plausible candidates for the 4th District seat, each typically has lost by 8-10 points. “The 4th is not warm and fuzzy territory for the Democrats,” said Ciruli. 8/2 Congresswoman Diana DeGette, D-Colo., represents a safe Democratic district based in Denver, but she faces a surprising amount of turbulence, analysts here say. If a popular minority candidate decided to take on DeGette, such as Denver Mayor Wellington Webb, who has so far turned down the opportunity, she could be in big trouble, politicos say. “DeGette will have the seat as long as she wants to keep fighting, but at some point, she may get tired of arguing with her own base,” said Floyd Ciruli. “I think her challenge will grow with time.” July 2002 Rocky Mountain News, Ann Imse, July 26, 2002 A recent poll by Ciruli Associates for 9News found 59 percent of the 215 Democrats surveyed wanted someone else to be the party’s presidential candidate in 2004. Only 27 percent chose Gore, while 14 percent said they didn’t know or didn’t answer. “You could make a very good case that he deserves (the nomination),” said pollster Floyd Ciruli . “In fact, he won the popular vote.” Ciruli said he suspects the negative response in the poll came from people who wonder how Gore could have lost the election with such advantages as an incumbent president and a fabulous economy. “The may be wondering if he simply has not bonded with the American people,” Ciruli said. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Pueblo Chieftain, Tom McAvoy, July 26, 2002 A Ciruli Associates poll showed that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rollie Heath has closed the gap but still trails Republican Gov. Bill Owens 2-1. Heath called the poll good news. Floyd Ciruli, a Pueblo native who heads the polling firm in Denver, said Heath still faces an uphill battle to make himself more recognizable to the voters. “As of today, 75 percent of the likely voters could not identify Heath as to whether they would be favorably or unfavorably disposed to him,” Ciruli said. “He has a long way to go.” Heath’s running mate—lieutenant governor nominee Bill Thiebaut of Pueblo—doesn’t help because his name is unknown to 79 percent of people surveyed statewide, according to Ciruli. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pueblo Chieftain, Tom McAvoy, July 25, 2002 Three state senate races in Southern Colorado are among eight battleground districts that may decide which party takes control in the Nov. 5 election, according to a leading political analyst. Floyd Ciruli, a Pueblo native and respected pollster-political analyst in Denver, identified the Pueblo, Arkansas Valley and San Luis Valley senate races as crucial to who’s in power. Democrats hold a razor-thin 18-17 majority, and a swing of only one seat could return Republicans to the senate control they had unbroken from 1962-1998. “The presumption is Democrats are vulnerable in the Loveland/Larimer County senate race (where Stan Matsunaka is term-limited) to the Republican candidate, Rep. Steve Johnson,” Ciruli said. “So the Democrats may have to pick up a seat in Southern Colorado.” Pueblo’s Senate District 3 seat is being contested by two state representatives - Republican Joyce Lawrence and Democrat Abel Tapia - both trying to succeed term-limited Sen. Bill Thiebaut. “Do I think the Democrats will lose in Pueblo? They have in the past, (including house losses to Lawrence), but Tapia is a good candidate,” Ciruli said. He gave the early advantage to Tapia, who has a voter registration edge of roughly 40,000 Democrats over 18,000 Republicans and 22,000 independents. In the Arkansas Valley, new Senate District 2 has come down to Republican Rep. Ken Kester of Las Animas and Fremont County Democratic Chairman Dan Slater. Ciruli called the race too close too call, saying Kester’s long ties to both ends of the district may be offset by Slater’s expected financial backing from trial lawyers. “The trial lawyers apparently love this guy, slater, and will spend a ton of money on him,” Ciruli said. “On the other hand, the voters in Fremont County are very conservative.” In the San Luis Valley, Sen. Luis Entz, R-Hooper, is given the early advantage over Democratic challenger Rafael Gallegos of Antonito in Senate District 5. Entz said this is the first time he has had the benefit of even a slight Republican voter registration edge after winning eight house elections in supposedly Democratic districts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Ann Imse, July 25, 2002 Coloradans’ confidence in the economy has plummeted—and that’s from a poll taken July 8-14, before the worst of the stock market’s slides. The dramatic drop in confidence—from 40 percent believing in January the economy has improved to just 12 percent in July—is part of the reason that incumbents lost ground in the same survey, said pollster Floyd Ciruli. Ciruli conducted the poll for 9News among 601 Colorado adults who are likely to vote in November. It has a four-point margin of error. He attributed part of the incumbents’ slide to the fact that January’s numbers were record highs because voters were backing their elected officials in the wake of Sept. 11. But now, concern about the economy “is like a tsunami moving through,” he said. Shock over WorldCom’s deceptive financial reports caused the stock market to drop precipitously and Congress is reacting quickly on reform law, he noted. Democrat challenger for governor, Rollie Heath, remains a blank among voters. Some 75 percent of those polled continue to say they have to opinion or don’t know if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about him. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Peggy Lowe, July 1, 2002 As Denver Mayor Wellington Webb heads into his final year in office, the city isn’t as upbeat in the post-9/11 era, but optimism still exists. Pollster Floyd Ciruli said most people agree. People are moving back to the city, into new developments in Cherry Creek, LoDo, and the old Lowry Air Force Base, and into the northeast neighborhoods like Green Valley Ranch, he said. Some great projects took shape on Webb’s watch, including Central Platte Valley, Ciruli said. “All in all, I think it’s been a pretty good run,” Ciruli said. “My one caveat is he needs to be careful about going into ‘legacy land’ where you spend too much time—or your friends spend too much time—on final credit.” June 2002 Rocky Mountain News, Katie Kerwin McCrimmon, June 15 The Hayman blaze ignited a secondary firestorm. Politicians are using the inferno to blow hot air of their own. Analyst Floyd Ciruli predicted that politicians will continue to mold disaster campaign strategies throughout the summer. “There is only one story. This is Colorado’s post 9/11 story,” Ciruli said. The politicians are simply following a long-established pattern here. Gov. Dick Lamm pioneered the disaster visit with his helicopter tour of the deadly Big Thompson Floods in 1976. “Up until that point, his gubernatorial career had been lackluster. From that point on, he became governor,” Ciruli said. When tornadoes leveled parts of Limon, Gov. Roy Romer donned his leather bomber jacket and flew to the scene, burying a story about an alleged mistress in the process. Owned does not sem to relish appearances at disasters like his predecessors did. But he says he must go to help the victims and coordinate disaster relief. Ciruli concurred. “This is what governors do.” May 2002 Denver Business Journal, Cathy Proctor, May 17, 2002 In order to get on the ballot, RTD’s $4.5 billion FasTracks proposal supporters will have to work hard. If the board decides to make a move on June 18 for the 2002 ballot, supporters will have to collect 65,000 to 70,000 (signatures) to get a comfortable cushion, said Floyd Ciruli, a local pollster who has run ballot campaigns. And they have only seven weeks to do it before the Aug. 7 deadline. “It’s do-able, but you are now in a very tight deadline situation,” Ciruli said. And RTD might be better served by waiting a year anyway, he said. “RTD runs best when it’s seen as mostly non-partisan, and the governor and the Republicans have made it clear that they don’t want it in ‘02. They’re going to pick up far more bipartisan support in ‘03,” Ciruli said. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, John Sanko, May 10, 2002 The 2002 Colorado legislative session was noted for its politics, perhaps more so than many years. Veteran pollster Floyd Ciruli said in fairness one has to look at the budget limitations for creating much of the problem. No one is sure yet whether Colorado is completely out of the woods with cuts and shifts already made. While revenues were falling, needs continued to grow, Ciruli said, in everything from transportation to health care costs. “Redistricting really framed the beginning of the session as very hostile and very confrontational,” Ciruli said. This is going to be a very tough election, especially on the legislative end of it. There’s the issue of control of the Senate and changes in the House due to reapportionment.” March 2002 Rocky Mountain News, Ann Imse, March 21, 2002 The initial optimism that attracted support for Ocean Journey was unable to sustain it through debt payments. In hindsight, the plan was fatally flawed by heavy debt from the beginning. Judy Peterson-Fleming and her husband, Bill, “were tremendous promoters. They were unbelievably aggressive and dedicated at selling it. They made it exciting and fun,” said pollster Floyd Ciruli, an early skeptic. That enthusiasm, combined with civic boosterism and the booming economy of the ‘90s, prompted many backers to suspend their normal cautious assessment about the aquarium’s finances, he said. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gazette Telegraph, Mary Boyle, March 17, 2002 As former U.S. Attorney and Democrat challenger Tom Strickland attempts to unseat Republican incumbent Wayne Allard for his U.S. Senate seat, he faces a post-9/11 atmosphere in which incumbents have an advantage. Colorado has about 500,000 more residents whose votes are up for grabs and who could decide the race. They include men and women throughout the Front Range I fast-growing counties like El Paso, Douglas and Weld. They lean toward Republican, Denver political analyst Floyd Ciruli said, but have little loyalty to either major political party. They also are far more moderate than the anti-tax Republicans who moved to Colorado from California in the early 1990s. “They give the state a certain volatility,” Ciruli said. If “soccer moms were the swing voters who swept Democrats into office in the 1990s, the new group politicians like Strickland and Allard must win over is what Ciruli calls “office park men.” These are white males between 20 and 40, often Republican, who’ve either lost their jobs in the technology industry or fear they will. They’re insecure about the future and anxious about the war on terrorism. “Clearly these guys are the hunting ground of the campaign,” Cirul said. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, John Sanko, Capitol Bureau, March 11, 2002 Competing plans to fix Colorado’s clogged roads is flaring up as Gov. Bill Owens and Senate Democrats promote their ideas. Political pollster Floyd Ciruli said voters probably don’t see a big difference in the two plans, but that doesn’t mean they don’t care about the issue. “Transportation remains a very big concern for them,” he said. “When you ask the people what they think the governor and legislators should focus on, transportation came in second in my last poll, only behind education. It’s a real important issue. If nothing gets done (on transportation), whoever gets blamed for it would be vulnerable. Right now both sides appear to be playing cautious, but different games on what to do. Clearly, if nothing gets done, potentially one side could be at risk in November. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Lynn Bartels, March 9, 2002 In U.S. Senate candidate Tom Strickland’s final days in office, he handed out $257,000 in cash bonuses to staffers. Four U.S. attorneys who received bonuses gave $1,000 each to Strickland’s campaign. Critics say the bonuses were meant to drum up support, but the Strickland camp says it’s not true. Political Consultant Floyd Ciruli said he believes the bonuses are a controversy that will continue to dog Strickland. “It’s a perception standard,” he said. “It doesn’t matter anymore if there was any actual or substantive conflict. It’s ‘Could there have been a conflict.’” But Ciruli said he wonders whether the public will care about the issue as much as those involved in the heated Senate battle. Strickland is trying to unseat Republican Wayne Allard. February 2002 Boulder Daily Camera, Sandra Fish, Feb. 13, 2002 Although the Colorado General Assembly will debate gun control issues in the 2002 session, the topic is less important to voters who have turned their attention to the war on terror. Regulating or not regulating weapons is low on the priority list, said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver political pollster. “It’s simply not in the public consciousness to any great extent,” Ciruli said. “The importance of the issue (in 200) was really a direct derivative from Columbine and the national debate, with the President (Clinton) shaping the issue.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Boulder Daily Camera (Associated Press), Steven K. Paulson, Feb. 11, 2002 Activity is brisk for candidates entering and exiting the race for Colorado’s new 7th Congressional District. Pollster Floyd Ciruli said the national parties recognize they have an opportunity to start fresh in a district without the power of the incumbency, and they are pushing hard to find good candidates. With a 10-vote difference between Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. House, Ciruli said Democrats only have to win a few key seats to take control. So they are putting in time and money....Ciruli said the 7th District “race is going to be close and competitive.” He said the new district leans Democratic, wrapping around Denver to encompass parts of Jefferson, Adams and Arapahoe counties, and has an eclectic mix of elected officials. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Colorado Statesman, Erika Trautman, February 8, 2002 Gubernatorial candidate Rollie Heath won an endorsement from Denver Mayor Wellington Webb. According to pollster Floyd Ciruli of Ciruli Associates, the endorsement is a big step up for Heath. “Mayor Webb is one of those people who has been in politics so long and has such deep roots in the party that Democrats will look at that endorsement and say that means something. It should help in particular in the Democratic heartland and with those interest groups – the minority community, the labor community. What it says is that no matter where you are in this state, you suddenly have an anchor in Denver,” said Ciruli. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, John Sanko, Capitol Bureau, Feb. 2, 2002 “Hillbilly” sate lawmaker, Sen. Ken Chlouber, might run against incumbent Congresswoman Rep. Diana DeGette. Political pollster and consultant Floyd Ciruli said it’s possible Chlouber could do surprisingly well because of “fractures” within the Denver Democratic Party. DeGette has had her differences with both labor and the Hispanic community.... “He (Chlouber) is a lot like Ben Nighthorse Campbell,” Ciruli said, referring to Colorado’s U.S. senator who showcases his American Indian heritage. “He’s a true mountain character, and people will like that. He could probably run better than most other Republicans.” January 2002 Fort Collins Coloradoan (Associated Press), Steven K. Paulson, January 13, 2002 Political maneuvering has forced a Denver district judge to decide the boundaries of a new congressional district. “What the Republicans are playing is defense. They recognize the Democratic strategy all along was to get it to the courts. Clearly, the Democrats believe they will get a better deal in court,” Ciruli said. Republicans are “looking as reasonable as possible,” Ciruli said, by submitting a redistricting map to the court that was based on a 1982 court decision giving the Western Slope and Eastern Plains their own representatives, keeping Denver whole and putting Pueblo and the San Luis Valley with the Western Slope. Democrats said the court decision is out-of-date, reflecting a Colorado that no longer exists because of growth and expanding Hispanic populations. Ciruli said Democrats also are taking a big gamble. “The Democrats have taken a few good cards and played them well They appear unified in their strategy. They’re playing a high stakes game and risking everything. They know it’s impossible to lose the two seats they now control, but they’re going for one more. They have no better idea than anyone else how the courts will rule.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Christian Science Monitor, staff writer Liz Marlantes, Jan. 7, 2002 The Bush tax cut is figuring prominently in the midterm elections. President Bush’s approval has soared post-Sept. 11, but Democrats are launching attacks blaming the president’s tax cut for upcoming budget deficits and the current recession. “Democrats are looking to blame Bush for what (are) obviously, for a lot of people, hard times,” says Floyd Ciruli. “Whether that’ll click or not, I’m not sure. Both because it appears we’ve hit near bottom, and we’re beginning to see some uptick, and because a lot of people think it’s terrorism that caused the depth and seriousness of the recession, as opposed to tax cuts or one year of Republican policy.” If the economy revives, Democrats may have trouble convincing voters that deficits still lie ahead. “As much as anything, it’s going to be a question of timing on this economy,” says Ciruli. “Because I don’t think the [Democratic] message itself is all that salient–it’s way too mixed. I think a lot of people are not going to blame the president for the recession, or are going to like the tax cuts.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Denver Post, Capitol Bureau writer Julia C. Martinez, Jan. 6, 2002 The 2002 Colorado legislative session, which began Jan. 9, is expected to be filled with partisan rancor and wrangling. It will be a year in which policy decisions will be put on hold and posturing will take precedence over substance prior to the Nov. 5 election. “Yet, political pollster Floyd Ciruli says the public is still in a post-Sept. 11 frame of mind and not in the mood for nasty antics. ‘I think the public has the expectation that (the legislature) will be less partisan, less prone to gridlock.’” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Capitol Bureau writer John Sanko, Jan. 5, 2002 The regular session of the 2002 General Assembly will look more like a political boxing ring than a legislative forum, thanks to early–and often–political posturing for the upcoming election season. Gov. Bill Owens is up for re-election, and Republicans will want to recapture the Senate, and give the governor the “comfort zone” he enjoyed during the first two years of his administration. “Without a doubt, political positioning will dominate this session,” said pollster Floyd Ciruli. “Everything going on will be calculated on what it can mean in November.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Denver Post, Washington Bureau writer Mike Soraghan, Jan. 4, 2002 The U.S. Senate match between incumbent Republican Wayne Allard and Democrat challenger Tom Strickland is heating up after a post-Sept. 11 cooling off period. Allard may have the advantage due to government response to the terrorist acts, coupled withe public’s preference for the status quo right now. “Incumbents gained from the rally effect,” said Denver political consultant Floyd Ciruli. “I don’t know that I see the argument (in the race) that’s going to convince the mildly attentive middle in the state, who will need an excuse to move off the status quo.” However, if that renewed interest translates into an increased faith in government, that could help a Democrat such as Strickland who is strong on law and order issues, Ciruli said. December 2001 Rocky Mountain News, Staff Writer Michele Ames, Dec. 11, 2001 A fund-raising letter sent out by Sen. Bob Hagedorn, who is running for the Democrat nomination for governor, made a splash when the letter received a stern warning about negative campaigning. “The process of dividing up the party is very noisy and controversial,” said Floyd Ciruli , a longtime political pollster and former chairman of the Colorado Democratic Party. “That’s why party chairmen hate primaries.” Ciruli said he wasn’t surprised to hear that the first dust-up in what is expected to be a rough-and-tumble governor’s race came over a fund-raising letter. “The early shots in the war are always fund-raising letters. Candidates must give their potential supporters red meat. They must give them a really good reason to back them. The differences are sited and the controversies started.” November 2001 The Denver Post, Staff Writers Coleman Cornelius and Mike Soraghan, Nov. 27, 2001 Congressman Bob Schaffer, R-Fort Collins, keeps his pledge not to seek fourth term. Politicos are speculating that he might run for a statewide office, even if it means a political step down from Congress. National Republican officials said they expect to have little problem holding the seat, given the 4th District’s solid conservative leanings. Denver political consultant Floyd Ciruli agreed. “Unless there’s a major reapportionment change, a conservative Republican can hold that seat.” Politicians running for lesser offices are a part of the new calculus that term limits have added to Colorado politics, says Ciruli. “With term limits, you find politicians doing unusual things to stay before the public.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Associated Press, November 2001 The state panel redrawing legislative district boundaries has hit a sticky partisan impasse surrounding Jefferson County redistricting. Jefferson County is “ground zero” in the reapportionment battle, said Floyd Ciruli. Unaffiliated voters there tend to vote moderate or Democrat, and four of seven senators representing Jefferson County districts are Democrats. “Clearly, you cannot do this without considerable competition and disagreement. This decides political power and can end careers or make careers and in some cases can actually change control of a legislative body.” Ciruli said the process also has been stressed this year because of Republican criticism of the four appointments to the commission made by the chief justice of the state Supreme Court. Each of the four are Democrats. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Capitol Bureau Writer John Sanko, November 2001 The City and County of Broomfield became a reality, but it’s political clout is still in question. Broomfield may be better off financially, but–with fewer than 40,000 residents–it won’t be able to out-muscle its much bigger neighbors, said Floyd Ciruli. “They are bigger than Hinsdale County (pop. 790),” Ciruli joked, “But they’re going to still be a very small county in the middle of very large counties. Theoretically, I don’t know that they do have any more political power. What they don’t do any more is send money to Boulder, Adams, Jefferson and Weld counties. So they do have more autonomy, more freedom of action and some additional resources.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Denver Post, Staff Writer Kieran Nicholson, November 2001 The Jefferson County sheriff’s race is off to an early start, but controversial incumbent John Stone has yet to decide whether he’s running. Stone’s Columbine baggage might make him appear politically vulnerable, political pollster Floyd Ciruli said, but her shouldn’t be counted out. “It has been a very tough first term. Whether or not people are going to hold him responsible for it, I can’t say...Opponents will have to be careful about relying too heavily on the Columbine card. “They are going to have to come up with other issues to look at. The usual things candidates use when they are running for sheriff.” Ciruli called Stone an experience politician who had been through tough races in the past. “If Sone wants to run as the incumbent, he can be quiet formidable.” ... Even though it’s a county race, voters around the state will be keeping an eye on it. “It will definitely be one of the most interesting races around.” Stone will experience complete name recognition, but it’s difficult to know now whether that will be positive or negative. “This is a pretty nice guy and he is very easy to get along with and talk to. He can use his personality skills and argue that we all went through Columbine.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Denver Post, Columnist Diane Carman, November 2001 Politics is taking a back seat to war and terror. “There’s a low level of real dialogue,” said pollster and political consultant Floyd Ciruli. “The news is overwhelmed by war, terrorism, the economy.” Ciruli notes that for incumbents, most polls showed “a 9/11 bump” in popularity. “They’re getting all the attention. They’re seen as trying to do things, taking care of problems. And there’s also the rallying effect. In times of uncertainty, people want experience. They don’t’ want to rock the boat.” Ciruli said the mayoral election in New York illustrates how little tings can be hugely influential with a volatile electorate. (Rudy Giuliani helped elect Michael Bloomberg by taking up his cause.) “The voters are prepared to move dramatically,” Ciruli said. “The confluence of events has totally changed the dynamics. The electorate itself is jumpy, nervous. Events are surging from day to day in ways that are difficult to anticipate. I don’t think any politician can be secure.” October 2001 Pueblo Chieftain, Denver Bureau Chief Tom McAvoy, Oct. 29, 2001 McAvoy’s weekly column was devoted to a Ciruli Associates poll of Pueblo residents taken three weeks after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. “Residents of Pueblo, a Democratic stronghold in Southern Colorado, join people throughout the nation who have rallied behind the president and the military action targeted at terrorists.” Said McAvoy: Unlike some pollsters, who shall remain anonymous here, Ciruli doesn’t ask loaded questions designed to produce a predetermined desired response. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rocky Mountain News, Capitol Bureau Writer John Sanko, Oct. 25, 2001 State Senate Pres. Stan Matsunaka entered the Colorado governor’s race proposing a spending cap that might help him against popular incumbent Gov. Bill Owens. Political pollster Floyd Ciruli predicted whoever is the Democratic nominee will have a tough time against Owens, who has a high popularity rating along with more than $3 million in the bank. “It’s going to be extremely difficult to beat Bill Owens, not matter who you are. While the governor is extremely well positioned, this is going to be a difficult year to predict in some ways. I think the economy is going to be the big issue next year and no one is talking about it.” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Wall Street Journal, Staff Reporter Robert Gavin, October 10, 2001 Fears of recession have trumped urban-sprawl issues in high-growth states such as Colorado. In Colorado, anti-sprawl measures, including “urban-growth boundaries”–which would direct development withing proscribed metropolitan areas and limit it outside those areas–were almost certain to dominate next year’s state elections, says Floyd Ciruli. No longer. “We’re talking about 180 degrees in a matter of weeks. We were debating growth and now we have to start worrying about jobs and economic development. Mr. Ciruli points to the Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce, which last week launched a re-examination of economic-development strategies in the wake of accelerating job losses, particularly in tourism, the state’s second-largest industry. September 2001 Rocky Mountain News, News Washington Bureau Writer M.E. Sprengelmeyer, Sept. 8, 2001 U.S. Senate candidate Tom Strickland gave up his $835,000 a year job as a law partner to bolster his resume in the Clinton administration and soften his “lawyer-lobbyist” image. Political analyst Floyd Ciruli calls the pay cut an investment rather than a sacrifice, considering Strickland and his wife, Nancy, still hold a portfolio of stocks, mutual funds and business investments that generated just over $700,000 of income in 2000. “While it’s a pay cut for him, it’s not like they don’t have any money to live on,” Ciruli said. “Given his passion is elective office, I think his reading was correct that he needed this appointment and he needed to build up his political resume with this appointment. It has indeed given him a new title, which is incredibly important, whether it’s in (his) literature, in the newspaper or what I put on a poll. I think it was a good investment.” August 2001 The Washington Times, Staff Writer Valerie Richardson, August 13, 2001 Democrat Tom Strickland is once again challenging Sen. Wayne Allard for the coveted Senate seat considered among those that can tip partisan balance. A Ciruli Associates poll shows the candidates polling dead even: 42 percent each. Allard’s plodding style is easy to underestimate. “Wayne Allard’s low-key demeanor is deceptive; he has proven himself to be a formidable opponent,” said Floyd Ciruli. [top] [more headlines] [ \| search ]
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