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Ciruli Associates Local Polls Conducted in 2007 Election Cycle by Floyd Ciruli Ciruli Associates conducted election polls in Denver, Douglas and Adams counties for entities interested in voter opinion concerning bond and tax proposals during August, September and October of the 2007 election cycle. The following analysis compares the poll and election results. In two counties – Douglas and Adams – polls were conducted in August before the campaigns began. Denver County Bond and Revenue Proposals Two polls were conducted 30 days apart for the Better Denver campaign for eight bond issues and a tax revenue issue. The last survey on October 10 showed all nine proposals passing. There was a hierarchy of voter preference in the mid-60 to mid-70 percent range for streets, health and public safety, to the mid-50 percent range for public buildings and cultural facilities – Boettcher Concert Hall (BCH) and the Denver Museum of Nature and Science (DMNS). The overall package passed with a mean average of 58.4 percent.
After an exceedingly slow start in the return of mail-back ballots (more than 70% arrived the last week and 28,000 the last two days), a turnout of 93,000 voters was reached (44% of 210,000 ballots mailed), within the range of turnout projected from previous similar elections.
There was no organized or funded opposition, and the few opposition statements that appeared mostly focused either on the overall tax impact or on the concert hall and museum proposal (1H). Those two organizations, joined by supporters of the public library, invested substantial effort and money in activating the city’s cultural supporters (estimated to be about 35% of the likely voters, but representing 40% of the final electorate). The Denver voters supported most of the package from the start of the campaign. However, the mean average support for the nine proposals declined from September 10 to October 10 by five points and another five points to Election Day. Declines for bond and tax proposals are not unusual in campaigns. The first two items on the ballot declined the most from the October 10 poll to Election Day: the 1A maintenance fund declined by 9 percent and the 1B health bond by 10 percent. The maintenance fund had the most significant tax associated with it. Fortunately for the two bonds polling lowest, their fall-off was small enough to keep them above 50 percent (public buildings down 2% and BCH/DMNS down 3%). Douglas County Roads, Criminal Justice and Library Proposals Three Douglas countywide ballot issues were tested in two different polls sponsored by Douglas County Public Works Department and the Douglas County Libraries during August. Voter support for continuation of a road building and maintenance program (sales tax extension) was 68 percent in an unaided question, and increased to 72 percent after a case was made explaining the bond and testing various pro and con statements about it. The question was asked in the Libraries poll and received 70 percent. It was approved by 73 percent. The jail construction proposal (also a sales tax extension) received 51 percent and 50 percent support in the two separate polls with unaided questions. It won with 68 percent voter support. Turnout was 38 percent in the mail-back election, or 42,000 out of 110,000 ballots mailed. A construction and operating proposal for county libraries requiring a property tax increase showed early support at 56 percent in an unaided question in a library-sponsored survey. After a case was made in favor, support increased to 64 percent. The library proposal lost by a few hundred votes. Douglas County Voter Polls and Results
The countywide road improvement sales tax extension started and finished strong. The jail expansion sales tax extension had little public awareness in mid-August, but proponents made a successful case for passage during the fall campaign period. It was no doubt helped by its similarity to the popular road improvement proposal. The library, which required a property tax increase, began its campaign in the mid-50 percent range. It likely became positioned as the only ballot item requiring a tax increase (verses the two tax extensions) in a difficult economic year (Douglas County has been especially affected by the real estate recession). Libraries, while beloved and well-used, are seldom seen as essential as roads and criminal justice. Adams County Baseball Stadium An August poll was conducted in Brighton concerning a city proposal for building a baseball/community stadium. The facility bond, which was to be paid for by an increase in the city sales tax, did not reach a majority of voter support. Only 42 percent of voters approved it in an unaided question and 46 percent after a case was presented.
During the fall, support declined even after an extensive, if brief, campaign. It only received 36 percent voter support. New taxes for stadiums are seldom easy to pass. Brighton voters did approve a bond proposal for road improvements by 63 percent that did not require a tax increase. Conclusion Metropolitan Denver voters were supportive of bond proposals for maintenance and infrastructure judged critical. They continue to be sensitive and selective concerning tax increases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ciruli Associates is a non-partisan research firm providing polling, election analysis and political commentary to Colorado and national organizations and media since 1976.
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